MAMATA HAS A TOUGH TASK TO RETAIN HER HOLD AMONG HINDUS
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, also the Trinamool Congress supremo, has hit the streets again in her usual style of aggressive politics — which she often practiced during her stint as opposition leader of the state against the CPM-led Left Front government. This time her fiery attack is directed towards the Prime Minister Narendra Modi led BJP dispensation. The reasons are the Citizenship Amendment Act, 2019 and the nationwide NRC, as said by the Union Home Minister Amit Shah on the floor of the Indian parliament. Although, NRC is still in the womb and the government is yet to announce it — with recent reports suggesting that it may be delayed.
However, there have been violent protests across the state. Strikingly, these protests, unlike the ones of Assam or other parts of the northeast, started much later — almost after four and two days of passing of the Citizenship Amendment Bill in the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha respectively. No doubt, these developments raise eyebrows. Dissent is very important for a democracy to survive but it must be expressed in a peaceful way. However, the protests weren’t peacefuls with agitators vandalising or setting fire to railway stations and trains or even pelting stones to the passing trains. But, for Mamata Banerjee, these are “small incidents”.
Actually, the Citizenship Amedment Act and the following violence protests that followed in the state, have landed the ruling Trinamool in a fix. The state ruling party’s fear is that these protests would only strengthen the hands of BJP — the worry as expressed by state minister and Kolkata mayor Firhad Hakim. The party can’t afford to take strong actions against the protestors —offend as it the 27% Muslim core vote bank of the party. On the other hand, the party also runs the danger of losing the support of the majority Hindus. Saffron party’s massive gains this year in the Lok Sabha elections at the expense of Trinamool was due to the shift of a substantial portion of Hindus towards the BJP.
This explains the main reason behind Mamata herself taking the lead in the protests against both CAA and NRC. To get the Bengali Hindus on her side, she is citing that since there would be no NRC in the state as long as she is the chief minister, no Bangladeshi Hindu immigrants should be scared. Dalit Matuas, who came to India from Bangladesh after 1971, are very crucial in state politics. The Matuas, who have influence over 70-75 assembly seats, also have a major role in Mamata Banerjee’s political success since 2009 Lok Sabha elections. However, this time a large chunk of Matuas shifted towards BJP and played a critical role in the saffron party’s victory of 10 out of 18 Lok Sabha seats it won.
However, Mamata is trying to win them by focussing on Assam’s NRC, which left a substantial portion of Hindus stateless. On the other hand, by strictly oppositing both CAA and NRC as “religiously divisive” and “anti-Muslim” by leading the protests herself, she is only consolidating her Muslim vote bank, which is now targetted by a new player in the state — Assauddin Owaisi’s MIM. Although, there is an Owaisi danger with MIM trying to build the base for the 2021 assembly polls, but there is no doubt that the majority of the Muslims still support Trinamool, which is also convinced that it would also gain the lost Bengali Hindu votes by playing the Bengali identity card.
However, there are flaws in Mamata and her party’s analysis. Seems that they are convinced by the recent victory in the by-elections — where the party won the two seats, Kharagpur and Kaliaganj, for the first time. Significantly, BJP had a lead in the Lok Sabha elections in the two seats. Not only that, Kharagpur was the seat of state BJP president Dilip Ghosh, which he vacated following his victory from the Medinipur seat in the Lok Sabha poll. No doubt, NRC had a role in TMC’s victory but now as the Citizenship Amendment Bill has become a reality as an act, Matuas, who don’t have the citizenship despite being voters, will turn towards the BJP. Although, Trinamool believes that Mamata’s vigorous anti-NRC stance will work with the Matuas — who have been elected MLAs and MPs on party’s tickets.
Another reason for Mamata’s worry should be the continued erosion of the Left, whose large voters have transferred towards the BJP. Left allied with the Congress for the by-polls but the alliance proved disastrous for the second time. The Left and Congress, despite coming together, are not able to pull the required votes together. This only points to significant tectonic change in Bengal politics, which is now heavily polarised on religious lines between the BJP and the Trinamool. More the loss of Left and Congress, more the BJP comes out as the beneficiary — as this lessens the probability of division of anti-Trinamool vote.
One point where the ruling Trinamool has the edge is the credible face — its supremo Mamata Banerjee. Also, one of the major causes, for the continuous failure of CPM to regain its lost base — although the Marxists, as usual, never accept this bitter fact. The main opposition BJP also lacks a credible face. Neither its state president Dilip Ghosh nor Mukul Roy, once regarded the right hand of Mamata, has the required credibility of a mass leader. However, Mamata also has her own weakness. Her polarising statements, just like her recent very controversial one where she preferred a UN referendum on CAA and NRC, only negate her image in front of the majority, who, as of late, have started to despise her appeasement policies. The rest of the work is done by her own party local leaders who don’t allow the opposition to work democratically and also harass the common people through “cut-money”, which was even raised by Mamata herself. Another important thing is the popularity of prime minister of Narendra Modi, thanks to Mamata’s constant stringent attack, which was although softened after the Lok Sabha elections but hardened again in the wake of CAA and NRC protest. BJP needs a strong local face but as witnessed, Modi card worked in those states where the party never came to power on its own or was not in power for a longer time.
So, by strictly opposing CAA, if Mamata consolidates her Muslim support, at the same time she risks losing the support of the Matuas. Also, Mamata Banerjee shouldn’t forget that the politics of Bengali identity hasn’t been quite successful in the state — otherwise Amra Bangali party, which was formed to protect the interests of Bengalis, would have tasted political success. Instead, this Bengali party even failed to create a political space in a Bengali majority state.
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