BJP’S BENGAL STORY IS ONE OF ROLLER- COASTER RIDE CURRENTLY AT ROCK BOTTOM, NOW IT CAN ONLY GO UP

In West Bengal, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may have touched rock bottom in terms of its
electoral performance in the just concluded Kolkata Municipal polls. Yet some people take Dilip
Ghosh, national vice-president, are declaring that in the next round of state-wide civic elections,
the BJP would do much better, for reasons that do not exactly flatter him.

Under Ghosh, who was the Bengal BJP’s president before his recent elevation, the BJP’s
political journey has taken the saffron party, as one observer put it, from the sewers to the stars —
and back again! A cursory look at the party’s disconcertingly unpredictable record in
winning/losing votes in major elections would endorse such a view. For instance, the BJP did relatively well in winning a 17 per cent plus vote share in the
shockingly conducted 2018 Bengal Panchayat polls. The ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC)
ended up winning over 45 per cent of the aggregate votes. It won 34 per cent of the seats
unopposed, as neither the BJP, nor the CPIM) led-Left Front and Congress, could put up candidates in the face of the TMC’s rough house tactics. Over 50 people, mostly opposition
supporters, were killed in the violent pre-poll campaigning.. A year later, the BJP came close to matching the ruling TMC seat for seat in the prestigious 2019
Lok Sabha polls. It won 18 seats out of 42, although it had won only 2 seats in 2009! The TMC
won 22 seats as against 34 in 2009.In terms of vote share, the BJP won over 40 per cent as
compared to the TMC’s 43 per cent.
In the recently held assembly polls earlier this year, the BJP faltered badly winning 77 out of 294
seats, belying the much higher expectations of its leaders and supporters. The TMC comfortably
won over 210 even as MLAs from other parties including the BJP queued up to join the winners’
bandwagon. The TMC’s vote share exceeded 45 per cent but the runner-up BJP winning 38 per
cent of the votes was no pushover.
However, the state BJP unit suffered a meltdown of sorts since the assembly polls. Always riven
by petty inner party wrangles and squabbles, the party suffered badly frustration among old
timers and hard core supporters reached a nadir.
They blamed the all-powerful Central Delhi-based leaders, who had taken over the state
organisation before the polls. Delhi’s simple-minded tactic of welcoming all and sundry from the
TMC into the party, luring them with poll tickets and other blandishments, bitterly backfired.
By and large, excepting Suvendu Adhikary and a few others, anti- incumbency-minded voters in
Bengal did not support old, locally unpopular TMC men who were royally feted, dined and presented as new promising leaders under the saffron flag, by central leaders/ministers! Old BJP
hands deserted their posts in droves in most districts.
The fault for the Bengal BJP’ debacle in the assembly elections could be squarely attributed to
the pompous, high pitched, aggressive campaigning conducted by ‘national‘ BJP leaders.
It is not surprising that since May 2021, when the TMC emerged as the decisive winners in the
assembly polls, hardly any ‘central’ BJP leader has so much as shown his face in Bengal —
except for a brief under-publicised trip made by party president J.P. Nadda. There was also the
unique spectacle of the central leaders blaming state BJP leaders and the latter accusing their
central leaders for what was an ignominious defeat on all counts.
As one analyst wrote in an article, ‘The BJP through its botched up tactics snatched defeat out of
the jaws of a possible victory—-nobody could deny that there was a strong anti-incumbency
feeling in Bengal in 2021.’
Since then up to the KMC polls, the BJP’s vote share declined as sharply as a steep cliff! From
around 38 per cent in May 2021, its share went down to around 24/25 per cent (approx) in the
three following assembly by-elections the TMC won. Still, it retained its position as the number
two party in Bengal, a distant second to the TMC.
And now the outcome of the KMC polls has robbed the BJP of even the protective fig leaf of its
runner-up status: in Kolkata, Bengal’s capital, where the voting trends influence results in the
rest of Bengal over time, the saffron party’s share is down to just around 9 per centof the
aggregate. After a long period in the cold, the CPI(M)-led Left Front staged a minor recovery of
sorts, coming in as a distant second to the TMC(74 per cent ), winning over 12 per cent of the
aggregate votes.
After Ghosh, it is now the turn of the younger, more polished Sukanta Majumdar to take over
the state BJP’s reigns as president. His brief tenure so far has been generally positive as he is
mercifully free from one dreadful habit that often spoiled Ghosh’s stature as a leader – of making
outrageously tasteless remarks that bewildered and annoyed people! However, it cannot be denied that if Ghosh’s stewardship carried his party through a roller-
coaster ride, the high point of 2019 LS polls too was achieved under him — not to mention the
steady growth in the party’s support base among people from 2018 to 2021, despite occasional
setbacks.
Both Ghosh and Majumder were summoned to Delhi by their wiser ‘seniors’ to explain the
party’s collapse. The boot was on the other foot: In all fairness, the state leaders should have
asked their supposedly ‘wiser’ leaders for an explanation instead!
Party insiders said that state leaders were told to concentrate on organisation building and
prepare for the next round of civic elections to over 100 bodies all over Bengal in the weeks
ahead.
It was reassuring to see that the irrepressible Ghosh had lost none of his old verve: his take on
the present situation was, as quoted by the media: The BJP will do far better in the coming round
of statewide civic polls, as its support was mainly in the districts. As for Kolkata, the BJP was
never strong here, either in terms of organisation or public support.
Most observers would agree. In any case, at 9 per cent its vote share is currently so far down that
it is not really indicative of the party’s actual following or clout in Bengal even in these tough
times. ‘There can be no denying the BJP’s performance graph cannot avoid going upwards
starting from such a low base reference point!’, says one analyst.
It is not easy. Modi and Yogi are formidable opponents. Somebody asked Hollywood actor Glen
Ford, “What do you call friendly?” and Ford replied, “Smile. Say hello.” Akhilesh Yadav has so
far not “smiled” or said “Hello” to Yogi and Modi. He wants to skin them off the mandate to
rule.
That said, Modi set the ball rolling—at an election rally he could not stop himself from being the
showboat he sometimes is. He told a highly charged audience that “UP+Yogi, bahut hai
UPyogi.” It was a message to the voter as well as to Akhilesh—“UPyogi” was constructed and
trotted out for Akki the Challenger. But Akki is no walkover. He turned, and returned the compliment in double measure. The
Samajwadi Party supremo said in a burst of creativity, “Yogi Adityanath is
‘Unupyogi’—meaning useless, at the end of his expiry date.
Yogi Adityanath is getting expunged because Modi and Akki can’t hold their mouths. Also,
Modi is bent on leading the BJP campaign in Uttar Pradesh, taking command.
Replying to Modi, Akhilesh quotes the Bhagwad Gita. “Yogi is a person who sympathises with
the pain of others…The person who stays away from ‘Maya’ is a Yogi. Our CM Adityanath is
the first ‘Yogi’ who landed directly on the CM seat after doing ‘Yoga,’ that's why he is
‘Unupyogi’ and not a Yogi, from today onwards I name him, ‘Unupyogi Bisht.”
Whoever thought the hook-nosed Akhilesh Yadav could be so mean, and harsh? “Ajay Bisht” is
Yogi Adityanath’s name plus surname he came by because he is his father’s son—the name and
surname he dumped when he turned “Yogi” and took on the mantle of the head of Gorakhnath
mutt.
Not satisfied with pulling Yogi Adityanath’s name through the rut, Akhilesh spoke of the “only
CM who works 24 hours and increases unemployment.” Only “CM who works 24 hours and
exam papers leak.” The “only CM who increased the electricity bill in UP?” “It's not Yogi, it's
"Unupyogi. What are you getting from Digital India? The PM took a dip in Ganga, but our CM
didn't. He knows that all the impure and gutter water is mixed in the Ganges.”
Rubbing the “Unupyogi” further in, Akhilesh Yadav said rivers are not clean in the state and that
even the CM knew that the rivers are not clean—“should the useless CM be removed or not?”
Earlier, Modi, while laying the foundation stone of the Ganga Expressway in Shahjahanpur,
proclaimed that the day will come when UP will be identified as the most modern state.
The feeling one gets is that Modi is positioning himself to take credit for a BJP win in UP. The
Yogi, for all his “UPyogi”, could find himself discarded. “Can Modi be such an ingrate?” the
question arises. But who is gonna ask Modi the question if the Yogi will be given a second
chance to rule UP or will somebody else get the chance? The Yogi’s claim to fame and success is that under his watch and guidance, Uttar Pradesh,
according to the BJP, transformed for the better—more security to the women in the state, far
better law and order situation and all-round development of the state.
For all that, there is the feeling that the electorate of Uttar Pradesh may not be inclined to give
the Yogi another term “in office.” The fact that Modi wavered in giving Yogi a clear signal to
lead the BJP’s election campaign was bandied about as a tussle between Yogi and Modi.
Now there is the feeling that Modi is bent on leading Yogi by the nose, which sends other
signals. And Akhilesh Yadav is waiting in the wings to clip Yogi’s wings and he isn’t shy of
giving it hard to both Yogi and Modi. The fight will get more intense in the days to come. The
electorate will decide if the Yogi is “UPyogi” like Modi said, or “Unupyogi” like Akki retaliated.