BJP IS TRYING TO CONSOLIDATE ITS POSITION THROUGH BYPOLLS IN ASSAM CONGRESS FACING MAJOR PROBLEMS IN WORKING ON ALLIANCE IN THE STATE

IOnly six months before Assam witnessed assembly elections, where the BJP led NDA returned back to power for the second consecutive time by defeating the Congress-led Grand Alliance. Within a short period, election season is back as the state readies itself for the bypolls for five assembly seats — Tamulpur, Gossaigaon, Bhabanipur, Mariani and Thowra — on October 30. These bypolls are due to deaths and resignations of incumbent MLAs.
After the poll debacle, Congress got involved with the internal fissures as many leaders wereunhappy with the party’s decision to ally with BadruddinAjmalled All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). Taking advantage of the grand old party’s internal schisms, the BJP was able to lure its two MLAs — Sushanta Borgohain of Thowra seat and Rupjyoti Kurmi of Mariani seat. Apart from this, the saffron party successfully lured AIUDF’s only Hindu MLA Phanidhar Talukdar of the Bhabanipur constituency. The
seats of Tamulpur and Gossaigaon became vacant after the deaths of the incumbent MLAs. Tamulpur was won by United People’s Party Liberal, an ally of BJP, while Gossaigaon was won by Bodoland People’s Front.

In the 2016 assembly polls, BJP formed its first government without achieving a majority on its own. It had to depend on its allies — Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and BPF. This time the saffron party tried to get a majority on its own but its tally

stopped at 60 again — four less than the majority mark. The bypolls offer a chance for the saffron party to reach more close to the majority mark. Out of the five, it is contesting on three seats — and is expecting to win all the seats. Its ally UPPL is contesting from two seats — Tamulpur and Gossaigaon.

Currently, it has 59 MLAs after the resignation ofMajuli MLAand union minister Sarbananda Sonowal, also former chief minister ofthestate. The bypoll for the seat hasn’t yet been declared by the Election Commission. If BJP wins all three seats and also the vacant Majuli seat, it will have 63 MLAs — just one less than the majority mark. That’s the reason, these bypolls are seen as crucial by the saffron party. Chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma himself has been leading the NDA poll campaign.

These elections aren’t only crucial for the ruling BJP but also the other parties, particularly for Congress. It has the challenge to retain the seats it won in the assembly polls. After its alliance with the AIUDF, the grand old party’s image has taken a hit among the Assamese speaking people, who see AIUDF as a communal party. Aware of this ground reality, it ended the months- old alliance with the AIUDF. The tactical move by the state leadership of the Congress was done to gain the lost ground amongthe Assamese.
It was done particularly keeping in mind the bypolls as both the party held seats fall in the Upper Assam region — where the Assamese community is dominant.

The battle, however, is tough for Congress. In Thowra, this year Congress defeated BJP by a small margin of 2.1% and in Mariani, the grand old party defeated the saffron party by a thin margin of 2.6%. The saffron party has nominated Sushanta from Thowara and Rupjyoti from Mariani. Both have won from the Congress tickets in the assembly polls. The battle has become more difficult due to the lack of opposition unity. Another motive of the Congress for its decision to break alliance with AIUDF was to ally with the Assamese regionalism based parties — Akhil Gogoi led Raijor Dal and Lurinjyoti Gogoi led Assam Jaityo Parishad (AJP).

The grand old party has entered into an understanding with AJP and offered the Majuli seat to Luringjyoti’s party. It, however, failed to seal the alliance deal with the Raijor Dal, which was unhappy as it was offered only one seat by the grand old party. As a result, Akhil’s party fielded candidates in Mariani and Thowra seats. During the assembly elections, Akhil, who won from the Sibsagar seat, withdrew his candidature from the Mariani seat with the aim of not dividing the anti- BJP votes. His
withdrawal had helped the grand old party to win the seat, although with a thin margin. Now with Raijor Dal too inthe contest, there is a possibility ofdivision ofthe anti-BJP votes. This is likely to benefit the saffron party, which secured 47.8% of votes this year. It already has an edge in the contest with Rupjyoti, a prominent tea community leader, contesting from the saffron platform.

In the Thowra seat, along with the Raijor Dal candidate, there is a candidate from the CPI too. During the last assembly polls, the Left party contested as a constituent of the Congress-led Grand Alliance. This has made the contest in the seat difficult for the Congress party. Inthe Bhabanipur seat, where AIUDF defeated AGP by a slender margin of 2.6% votes, the saffron party nominated Phanidhar, who won this year as an AIUDF candidate. Congress too has fielded acandidate in this seat and this can divide the anti-BJP votes. Bhabanipur seat falls under the Lower Assam region.

Thefailure to retainboth Marianiand Thowra seats will only further demoralise the workers of the grand old party. Inthis scenario, bothRaijor Daland AJP would be in a mood to not miss the chance to capture the anti- BJP space vacated by Congress. This will only make things worse for the grand old party and will further embolden the ruling BJP in the state.

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