AFGHAN ECONOMY AND SOCIAL LIFE ARE IN TATTERS AS TALIBANS REFUSE TO DEMOCRATISE SERIOUS DIFFERENCES WITHIN LEADESHIP DELAYING KEY DECISIONS OFORTHODOX REGIME

Last month, Afghanistan faced another major natural disaster with severe flooding in the northern provinces of Badakhshan, Baghlan, and Takhar. It is estimated that hundreds of people lost their lives and thousands were forced to leave their homes. This recent disaster follows a series of earthquakes in the western parts of Afghanistan late last year, which resulted in at least 2,000 deaths and left 150,000 people in urgent need of humanitarian aid.

These disasters have had a severe impact on Afghans due to poor governance and a struggling economy. Since the Taliban regained control in August 2021, Afghanistan’s situation has worsened significantly. Basic
medical supplies are scarce, and millions of people are struggling with food insecurity. Although the Taliban were effective as insurgents, they have struggled to govern effectively since taking power again.

The humanitarian crisis is made worse because the Taliban have not been officially recognized by any country as the legitimate government of Afghanistan. This lack of formal diplomatic recognition from the international community adds to the problem. No country has officially recognized the Taliban as Afghanistan’s legitimate government. As a result, the economic investment and international aid that the country needs are not available. These are resources the Afghan people desperately need.

Although many countries interact with the Taliban indirectly, none have given formal recognition. This is because the Taliban have not shown any signs of changing their behaviour from how they ruled in the 1990s. Many promises made by the Taliban before their 2021 takeover have not been kept. Girls are still banned from attending school, terrorist groups like Al- Qaeda move freely, and women have been forced out of the workplace.

To make matters worse, disagreements within the Taliban’s leadership leave the international community unsure who to deal with. These issues make it very hard for the Taliban to get formal recognition. When countries do engage with the Taliban, it’s usually for practical reasons that serve their own interests. For instance, northern neighbours in Central Asia work with Kabul mainly for economic and security reasons.
Recently, Kazakhstan signed trade deals with the Taliban worth around $200 million and lifted travel bans
on senior Taliban officials. Meanwhile, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan interact with the Taliban mainly due to concerns about border security and counterterrorism.

Surprisingly, Iran likely has the best relationship with the Taliban in the region. This unusual alliance between Shiite and Sunni extremists is driven solely by national interests and geopolitical reasons. One of the main reasons for Tehran’s relationship with the Taliban is access to water from the Helmand River, which starts in Afghanistan and flows into Iran. This is part of the regional dynamics between Iran and its Sunni neighbours. Tehran has concluded that its most effective defence mechanism is to engage with the Sunni Taliban, as a result of its Arab neighbours.

Moreover, and in a bizarre geopolitical irony, after years of cooperation, the Taliban and Pakistan are now at odds, and occasionally border fighting take out. Given the challenges facing relations between Tehran and
Islamabad as well, the odd Iranian- Taliban alliance is not all that surprising.

Other countries like China and Russia are also engaging with the Taliban for geopolitical reasons. For Moscow and Beijing, the Taliban’s victory over the West in Afghanistan is reason enough to keep friendly relations with Kabul.

Additionally, Russia mistakenly sees the Taliban as a defense against Daesh, while China views Taliban-controlled Afghanistan as a potential source of mineral resources. Daesh is another name for the Islamic State, a terrorist organization known for its extreme violence and radical ideology. Their presence is in several regions, including parts of the Middle East, such as Iraq and Syria, as well as in Afghanistan and
other areas where they have established cells and carried out attacks.

The Taliban have also been excluded from regional and international organizations. Groups like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, which Afghanistan was part of before the Taliban took over, have now shut the country out. The same applies to international organizations like the UN and the World Health Organization. In fact, the UN still has several Taliban leaders under international sanctions.

The Taliban aren’t the only ones in Afghanistan struggling with international recognition. Major anti-Taliban groups also face difficulties in convincing the international community to recognize them. The largest group
of this kind, the National Resistance Force (NRF) of Afghanistan, has not received formal engagement
from any country except Tajikistan, and even that is done quietly and cautiously.

While many countries indirectly deal with the Taliban, they do not engage similarly with the NRF. If countries like the US can interact with the Taliban indirectly, there should be no reason they can’t do the same with opposition groups ike the NRF.

Until the Taliban begins governing responsibly in Afghanistan and proves to the international community that it can be a trusted partner, few, if any, countries will establish diplomatic relations with them. As long as the Taliban remain isolated internationally, the Afghan people will keep suffering from a lack of economic investment and the limited humanitarian aid that can be provided.

The quickest way to end the suffering of the Afghan people is for the Taliban to keep their promises, reject terrorism, protect the rights of women and minorities, and create an inclusive government that represents all Afghans. Sadly, the Taliban have shown no interest in changing their ways, leaving the Afghan people to suffer once again.