LOW NEW JOB GENERATION IN AUGUST GIVES A JOLT TO TRUMP’S ECONOMY PUSH

The latest U.S. jobs report—closely watched by economists, Wall Street, and the political establishment— has landed with a thud. For the first time since the pandemic era, the nation shed more jobs than it gained, raising troubling questions about the health of the labour market, the Federal Reserve’s policy path, and President Donald Trump’s battle with the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS).Thanks for reading Vantage Press! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Released Friday, the August jobs report showed that employers added just 22,000 jobs, far below the consensus forecast of more than 150,000. To make matters worse, the report revealed a net job loss in June, revising down earlier estimates that had suggested modest growth. Instead of adding 27,000 jobs as originally reported, June actually saw 13,000 jobs cut. The unemployment rate ticked upward to 4.3%, its highest point since 2021, though still relatively low by historical standards. The numbers reflect a clear cooling in hiring momentum—and they arrive amid heightened political drama.

Out, out you go , rigged reports ….. Trump fired BLC comm. McEntarfer, but the jobs market is still sticky, August report is worse than July, only 22,000 jobs added against a forecast of 150,000 jobs. Same time under Biden “ Crooked Joe”, as Trump calls him, the jobs report was 170,000 jobs added.

This was the first jobs report since President Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer after July’s disappointing employment data. That report had shown weaker-than-expected job growth, prompting Trump to accuse the agency of “rigging” statistics to make his administration look bad. Without evidence, he claimed the numbers were inaccurate and undermined the narrative of an economic boom he has touted since returning to office. In McEntarfer’s place, Trump nominated E.J. Antoni, a Heritage Foundation
economist known for criticizing the BLS’s methodology and even suggesting that the agency pause its
monthly jobs reports. The nomination raised concerns among economists that political interference could compromise the integrity of one of the federal government’s most important statistical bodies.

Ahead of Friday’s release, Trump attempted to manage expectations, telling reporters that “the real numbers” would not appear until next year, when his policies supposedly take fuller effect. “You’re going to see job numbers like our country has never seen before,” he declared.

The debate now centres on what is driving the slowdown. Economists point to a combination of inflationary pressures, volatile trade policy, and sluggish manufacturing activity that has made employers more cautious about hiring.

Consumer prices, though off their 2022 peaks, remain uncomfortably high. Inflation has been running above the Fed’s 2% target, keeping borrowing costs elevated. Businesses, especially small and medium-sized firms, face higher input costs and reduced consumer demand, leading them to delay expansion or cut payrolls.

Trump’s evolving tariff policies— most recently a new round of levies on Chinese imports and retaliatory
measures from trading partners— have hurt U.S. manufacturers. Higher costs for raw materials, supply chain disruptions, and weaker export demand have combined to erode profitability. Manufacturers that once pledged to “reshore” jobs are now scaling back, waiting for clarity on trade policy.

The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a Trump initiative to streamline the bureaucracy, has accelerated job losses in the federal sector. The August report showed 15,000 fewer government jobs, part of a broader federal downsizing trend.

Private-sector downsizing is also evident. Consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that layoffs surged nearly 40% in August, wiping out 86,000 positions across industries. Companies cited restructuring, automation, and slowing demand as key factors.

The jobs report was not entirely bleak. Some industries are still expanding: Added 31,000 jobs in August, reflecting demographic trends and persistent demand. Hiring has slowed, as high interest rates weaken housing demand and squeeze commercial real estate projects. Showed marginal or negative growth, as consumer spending remains uneven. Continued to struggle, with weak global demand and tariff costs
depressing hiring.

The August data looks particularly weak when set against last year’s performance. In August 2024, the economy added more than 170,000 jobs, nearly eight times the figure reported this year. The unemployment rate then stood at 3.8%, half a percentage point below today’s level. (In July 2024, the U.S. economy added 114,000 jobs, a significant slowdown from June’s 179,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%. This trend indicates a cooling labour market, which may lead to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve).

Month-to-month comparisons also paint a grim picture. July 2025 saw around 110,000 new jobs, already
below expectations. August’s 22,000 suggests an accelerating slowdown. The downward revisions to June underscore the fragility of the labour market. Rather than modest growth, the country experienced outright job losses, signalling that weakness has been building for months.

The labour market data complicates the Federal Reserve’s next steps. The central bank has held interest
rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, after an aggressive series of hikes to tame inflation. Policymakers now face a bind: Cutting rates could risk fuelling inflation, which is still not fully under control. Keeping rates elevated could further weaken growth and employment, raising the risk of recession.

Markets are increasingly betting that the Fed will be forced into rate cuts by early 2026, especially if job
losses deepen. But Fed officials remain wary of repeating the mistakes of the 1970s, when premature easing reignited inflation.

For Trump, the optics of rising unemployment are politically dangerous. He campaigned on bringing jobs back to the U.S. through tariffs, reshoring, and government downsizing. Yet the August data shows the opposite: weaker hiring, rising layoffs, and shrinking government employment.

Trump has attempted to preempt criticism by questioning the accuracy of the BLS figures and promising stronger numbers in the future. But economists warn that politicizing economic statistics risks undermining public trust. “The credibility of the jobs report is vital for businesses, markets, and households,” one analyst said. “If people lose confidence in the numbers, policy decisions become harder and uncertainty increases.”

The August jobs report is more than just a set of disappointing numbers. It reflects the combined weight of
sticky inflation, tariff uncertainty, and cautious employers, all set against the backdrop of political tension over the independence of the BLS. Compared to last year’s steady job growth, the shift is stark. With unemployment creeping higher and revisions showing losses where gains were once reported, the U.S. labour market looks increasingly fragile.

For the Federal Reserve, the challenge is balancing inflation control with the risk of recession. For President Trump, the stakes are political as well as economic: whether his promises to restore American jobs can withstand the realities of a global economy under strain. The coming months will determine whether August marks a temporary stumble—or the beginning of a more painful downturn in the American labour
market.