ALLIES SET TO EXTRACT THEIR POUND OF FLESH FROM A DIMINISHED MODI

While Narendra Modi’s declaration that he would be sworn for the third time as the prime minister has enthused his bhakts, it has, at the same time, disenchanted the top RSS leaders as they feel that this message is primarily aimed at insulting them and cast the organisation in poor light. These leaders also share the view that the main person who has been responsible for turning Modi into a Frankenstein, is none else but the RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat.

Usually, RSS chooses the person to lead a saffron government. It has selected Modi for the job of prime
minister at the national executive meet held in Goa. Modi, by announcing his decision to take oath on June 9, has challenged the authority of the RSS. So far, no meeting of the newly elected MPs, or even the national executive, has been held to select the new leader.

Modi has completely bypassed the official rules and norms.

What has shocked the RSS most is his fixing the date for swearing in. This has strengthened the belief amongst the RSS leaders that the Gujarat lobby, headed by Modi and Amit Shah, are back to their old game of dictating the party. The two leaders are not even feeling ashamed that the BJP’s lacklustre performance is because of their arrogance, autocratic behaviour and misgovernance.

Just as they had hijacked the party during last ten years of the saffron rule, they are desperately trying to
hijack it once again. The BJP statement that at the afternoon meeting held at the Prime Minister’s residence Modi had been ‘unanimously’ chosen leader, with the partners hailing his ‘hard work and efforts (at) nationbuilding’, is being cited as an example. The statement has even angered senior BJP leaders Nitin
Gadkari and Rajnath Singh. The leaders feel that the party chief JP Nadda who has become a part of the Modi-Shah-Nadda triumvirate, a rubberstamp extension of the Modi-Shah duopoly, is the brain behind this mischief. He has been fervently trying to create the impression that the entire BJP leadership is still behind Modi.

Obviously in this fractured backdrop, using the word “unanimously” sounds ironical. The RSS, controlled by the Maharashtrian Brahmins, and the BJP leaders, nurse a common perception that the Gujarati lobby must be shown its real place and divested of all the key posts and power, in the greater interest of the party. If they go unchecked, they will ruin the party and it will never in the future would be able to raise its head.

That the RSS leadership has hardened its stance is also manifest in the massive fall of the share market, and especially wipe out of billions in the shares of Adani. This has sent a scary disturbing message; notwithstanding his best efforts, Modi has not succeeded in winning the trust of the BJP leaders. His
leadership quality hitting the nadir, no leader is eager to put his stake on him.

This is the situation which has motivated NDA allies such as Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu to go for hard bargaining. Both the leaders are against continuance of the Gujarati combination. Their main condition
is Amit Shah must not be given any significant assignment or portfolio. Both the leaders have not forgotten
the humiliation and insult inflicted on them the former Union home minister Shah. Naidu had to go to jail only because of Shah. It was the lingering threat of Modi coming back to power that made Naidu to revive the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh.

At a meeting on Wednesday, the alliance leader preferred to go for hard bargaining for key portfolios and concessions for their states. Sources maintain that Nitish, while reminding Modi of not keeping his promise of conferring the status of central university to Patna University, which he had demanded eight years back, also demanded the ministries of railway, agriculture and information. Conceding these offices to Nitish
and Naidu would virtually turn Modi into a political pauper.

These leaders have laid a claim on the finance portfolio as well. Not content with these demands, Naidu, a master at extracting his pound of flesh in a coalition government, wants the Lok Sabha Speaker’s post for his party, in addition to “special category status” for his state Andhra Pradesh. The post of the Lok Sabha ‘Speaker’ is extremely significant since BJP’s machinations of engineering defections from opposition parties, and even allies, thus weakening them, have been overseen by supine Speakers of the BJP in the last
decade. Naidu is thus insuring his own party against the onslaught of Modi-Shah-driven horse-trading in the future by demanding the post of the Speaker for staying within the shaky NDA fold for now.

The most embarrassing demand that has come from Nitish is the launching of countrywide caste census, similar to the one he has conducted in Bihar. The Telugu Desam Party’s 16 MPs and the JDU’s 12 are crucial for the BJP, which has only 240 seats in a House where the majority mark is 272. It is worth mentioning that Naidu, who will be sworn as the chief minister of Andhra Pradesh, had walked out of the NDA in 2018 over the issue of special category status, which ensures a state gets more central funds, grants-in-aid, and industrial incentives.

This time, the going for Modi is really proving to be tough. The top BJP leaders also are not in the mood to relent. They have suffered enough humiliation at the hands of the Gujarat lobby and now say no more. They are conscious of the fact that if they miss the bus this time, they will have to play the role of the subservient forever. Sources maintain that at least a dozen senior leaders, those who have held key responsibilities and office for last three decades, have conveyed their feelings to Bhagwat, and had also told him in no uncertain words that they will publicly oppose any move to impose Modi once again.

While Nitish and Naidu have been having hard negotiation with Modi, they have also reportedly been in touch with senior Congress leaders. They are also expected to meet Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi very soon. The Congress has no reservation in offering them the post of prime minister and deputy PM. Since they will be PM and Deputy PM, they will enjoy the prerogative to meet the needs of their respective states. Meanwhile, some top Muslim leaders from Andhra Pradesh who had extended support to Naidu and voted for his party, have cautioned him against having any kind of relation with Modi and Shah. They point out Shah during his frequent visits to the state, had made a point to threaten them and force them to fall in line. They point out that by supporting Modi, Naidu will be endangering their survival.

While the top leaders of INDIA bloc have opted to wait and watch the developments in the NDA camp, they emphatically asserted that they would continue the fight against the “fascist rule of the BJP”. Unwillingness of Rahul Gandhi to become the prime minister has created some amount of confusion in the INDIA bloc. He has nevertheless made it clear that his primary task is to strengthen the party at the grassroots. Unless the
party is strengthened it would not be able to face future challenges.

Gandhi thinks that the political scenario will get further complicated. Obviously, for the sake of its survival and continue to fight the rightist invasion, it must be strengthened.

Sources close to Rahul hold the view that the minority BJP government would not last long, in case it is sworn in. The internal contradictions are so acute that it will die its own death. With the absolute majority, Modi had turned an autocrat but now in the existing situation, he could not take the risk of behaving like a dictator. Obviously to counter the situation, the Congress must have a strong organisational structure and base.

In this context, the Congress leadership is contemplating to bring about a major change in Bihar unit. At a time when the party has performed beyond imagination in Uttar Pradesh, it could even hold its ground in Bihar, notwithstanding objective and subjective conditions being favourable. It is widely believed that the present set of state Congress leaders are incompetent and disconnected from the people, for whom Rahul is fighting.

The state leaders have virtually turned parasitical, being dependent on one or another party for their survival. Sources also maintain that Congress has had to suffer most for its overreliance of Lalu Prasad. It has been forced to follow his diktats, even though it struck at the root of the party. They point out that in 2020 it was his diktat that harmed not only the Congress but the entire secular forces. Lalu Had allotted 70 assembly seats to Congress, out of which it could retain only 17. In contrast he had offered only 19 seats to CPI(ML) out of which it could win 13. The strike rate of ML was quite impressive.

In the latest Lok Sabha election the INDIA bloc had to suffer for Lalu’s miscalculation once again. He knew
that CPI(ML) has been a major political force in the state. ML had demanded six seats. But Lalu did not budge and ML accepted three seats in the common interest of INDIA bloc. While RJD won five seats out of 20m seats it contested, ML won two seats of the three it fought, that too while it was suffering with acute resource crunch. It collected Rs 20 from each of its supporters and cadres. CPI(ML) had demanded Siwan, but Lalu fielded his daughter Rohini from there. Eventually, she lost.

Take the case of Pappu Yadav. In political circles, it is an open secret that Lalu hates him. But certainly that should not have been the reason for denying him the ticket, which he was seeking under a Congress hat. Finally, Pappu defeated Lalu’s favourite Bhima, who had crossed over to RJD from JD(U) barely a week ahead of the election. Political pundits nurse the view that nominating Pappu from Purnea would have had positive impact on at least five seats around the constituency.

Ground level Congress cadres strongly feel that keeping in tune with Rahul’s philosophy, the state unit should be revamped and restructured. Responsibility to reorganise the party should be entrusted to the  youth leaders. At present, the party is under the control of older upper caste leaders, particularly by those who owe their survival to Lalu.