DIRECT FIGHT BETWEEN BJP AND CONGRESS IN HARYANA STATE POLLS IMMINENT

With Indian National Congress (INC) saying no to alliance with Arvind Kejriwal led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) for Haryana Vidhan Sabha Election scheduled to be held in September-October 2024, electoral battle in the state is set to be direct between the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress. NDA has already disintegrated with JJP out of the alliance, and therefore, BJP has to contest alone, a prospect that haunts the party
leadership, especially after a great loss of half of the seats in recently concluded Lok Sabha Election 2024. The term of the Haryana Vidhan Sabha is to expire on November 3, 2024.

“There does not appear to be much scope for an alliance between the Congress and the AAP for the assembly polls in Haryana and Delhi but the INDIA bloc will fight elections together in Maharashtra and Jharkhand,” Congress general secretary Jairam Ramesh said yesterday. About a month back, AAP had also
announced not to extend its alliance with the Congress in forthcoming assembly elections.

Though Congress and AAP are constituents in INDIA bloc, AAP Supremo Arvind Kejriwal had categorically said that seat sharing arrangement between the two was only for the Lok Sabha election 2024. As per the seat sharing arrangement, Congress had contested 9 seats our of 10 in Haryana during the Lok Sabha
Election while AAP had contested on 1 seat. BJP had won all 10 seats in the state in 2019 Lok Sabha
Election, but lost 5 seats to Congress in 2024. It has emboldened the Congress, and thereby its leadership is of the opinion that the party can render a humiliating defeat to the BJP in Vidhan Sabha election on its own.

The Lok Sabha Election 2024 result in Haryana shows that the BJP has still a largest vote share of 46.11 per cent, followed by Congress with a vote share of 43.67 per cent. AAP could bag only 3.94 per cent of votes. JJP’s vote share was meagre 0.87 per cent while another regional party INLD’s vote share was only 1.74
per cent. It shows that only the BJP and the Congress will be in direct close contest in the forthcoming
Vidhan Sabha election. Both the regional parties, JJP and INLD seem to have completely lost their support base in the state.

BJP’s loss in the Lok Sabha election shows that the people of Haryana are still angry with the double engine government – both at the Centre and in the state. Farmers and the Punjabis have been angry against the former Chief Minister M L Khattar, whose removal could not pacify them. The new chief minister Nayab
Singh Saini could not also reverse the BJP’s declining political fortune, as the Lok Sabha result shows.

In the outgoing Vidhan Sabha, BJP has 42 MLAs. In a 90 seat Vidhan Sabha, the number falls short of
majority. BJP has support of one MLA of HLP, and one independent. Thus, total strength of NDA is 44. Three seats are currently vacant which enabled BJP to have just the magical number to retain its government.

Such a situation was created in March this year when JJP went out of the NDA. JJP has 10 MLAs and the party forms the official opposition in the Vidhan Sabha. Congress has 28 MLAs. INC, JJP, and 4 independent MLAs are now part of Congress led opposition. INLD has one MLA, but the party is neither in the NDA, nor with the Congress led official opposition. It is worth recalling that BJP had won only 40 Vidhan Sabha seats
in 2019 elections, while Congress had won 31, Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) 10, Haryana Lokhit Party (HLP) 1, and INLD 1 seat. Seven seats were won by independents. BJP could form the government with the help of JJP, HLP, and an independent.

BJP had performed very badly in 2019 Haryana Vidhan Sabha election though it had won all the 10 Lok Sabha seats from the state in election held only a few months ago. Its vote share had come down from 58.31 per cent to just 36.49 per cent during this period . However, in Lok Sabha election 2024, its vote share has increased to 46.11 per cent.

Though INC’s vote share was also 28.08 per cent in 2019, it has lately been resurgent, which can be seen its vote share of 43.67 per cent in the Lok Sabha election 2024. All other political parties have considerably lost their support base in the state is clear from the Lok Sabha election result. They have just become  insignificant political parties, though INLD, and JJP still have some influence is certain pockets.

It is in this backdrop, the Congress has made it clear that there would not be any alliance with AAP in Haryana. Though, JJP and four independents are supporting the present Congress led opposition in
Vidhan Sabha, they are most likely to contest separately. Contests would thus be chiefly between the BJP and the Congress, other parties or independents would be only marginal players.