DECODING THE SECRET FORMULA EMPLOYED BY NIRMALA SITHARAMAN IN HER BUDGET

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has provided a theoretical framework, explained in the acronym EMPLOYMENT, for her budget formulation: E for Employment and Education, M for MSMEs, P for Productivity, L for Land, O for Opportunity, Y for Youth, M for Middle Class, E for Energy Security, N for New
Generation Reforms, and T for Technology. A clever job indeed.

But she has done a cleverer job by constructing an index, which can appropriately be termed CONANDROM in allocating budget resources. It would expand to chances of Nitish And Naidu to Ditch the Rule of Modi and provides a weighted index of the risk faced by the Modi government from possible threats from alliance
partners.

The index has apparently been constructed on the basis of the number of MPs belonging to both Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu, the propensity of the two leaders to use their respective party’s numbers to arm twist the alliance and their past track record of switching sides and loyalties. This probably explains why Nitish Kumar with fewer MPs compared to Telugu Desam – 12 against Naidu’s 16 – has secured much
bigger bonanza in Nirmala Sitharaman’s budget allocation. Accordingly, Bihar gets Rs 26,000 crore for various infrastructure projects, including national highways, airports, medical colleges and tourism development, not to mention the development of the Bodh Gaya temple corridor on the lines of Varanasi, which, however, didn’t come to the rescue of the Modi party in the UP rout.

Of course, Naidu gets an impressive Rs15000 crore, but most importantly backing for his Amaravati-Polavaram plan, which had failed to win the Modi government’s endorsement during his previous honeymoon with the NDA. It was the failure to get the central backing that had prompted Naidu and his party to walk out of the ruling alliance in 2018. Naidu has now got even with Modi.

Obviously, the index gives a higher weightage to Nitish Kumar’s ‘easier’ virtue when it comes to switching sides, so much so that has come to earn the tag of Paltu Kumar, a far cry from ‘Sushasan Babu’ that he enjoyed at some point of his career.

Kumar’s first switch in political alliances came in 2013 when he parted ways with the BJP after he was unsettled by the BJP’s choice of Narendra Modi as the choice of prime ministerial candidate, a position he was eying himself on the basis of his so-called ideological commitment and emphasis on governance.

The 2015 Bihar assembly elections presented another twist in Nitish Kumar’s political career as he forged a new alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Indian National Congress, forming the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ or Grand Alliance. This electoral strategy proved successful as the Grand Alliance secured a decisive victory, with Kumar assuming office once again as CM.

However, the Grand Alliance was short-lived, and in 2017, Nitish Kumar resigned as chief minister, citing irreconcilable differences with his coalition partners, particularly over allegations of corruption against his deputy, Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD. This move was widely criticized, with Kumar facing accusations of
political opportunism and bandoning his commitment to secularism.

In a swift turn of events, Nitish Kumar re-aligned with the BJP to form a new government, leading to his reinstatement as CM heading the JD(U)-BJP alliance. A year into the alliance, Kumar raised objections over the BJP’s National Register for Citizens and parted ways with the BJP in August 2022, though continuing as chief minister with the support of RJD.

When the INDIA Bloc was being formed, Kumar was expected to play a key role in the opposition alliance, but just ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, he jumped the ship and joined the BJP camp, where he is currently enjoying an exalted position, at the same time holding on to his CM’s chair.

Chandrababu Naidu has similarly navigated a tumultuous relationship with the NDA and Narendra Modi and his political career spans decades, marked by significant shifts in alliances and political strategies that have shaped the political landscape of Andhra Pradesh and his national stature.

Naidu’s political journey took a significant turn in the early 2000s when he allied the TDP with the BJP-led NDA. This alliance was seen as strategic, leveraging BJP’s national reach and TDP’s regional influence in Andhra Pradesh. During this period, Naidu was a vocal advocate for coalition politics and a proponent of BJP’s agenda at the national level.

However, the dynamics between Naidu and the BJP-led NDA began to shift over time, particularly during the tenure of Narendra Modi, whose ascent marked a new phase in Indian politics, characterized by a more assertive central government and a push towards a unitary structure of governance.

The first signs of strain in Naidu’s relationship with the NDA emerged over the issue of Special Category Status (SCS) for Andhra Pradesh. Following the bifurcation of the state in 2014, with Telangana carved out as a separate state, Andhra Pradesh faced significant economic challenges. The promise of SCS, made during the bifurcation process to compensate for the loss of revenue-generating Hyderabad, became a flashpoint.

Naidu, then Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, sought SCS as a crucial lifeline for the state’s development, arguing that it was essential for bridging the economic gap and attracting investments. However, the Modi government’s stance on SCS remained ambiguous, leading to growing disillusionment among Naidu and
his supporters.

The divergence on SCS escalated into a full-blown political confrontation between Naidu and the Modi-led BJP. Despite initially supporting Modi’s candidature for Prime Minister, Naidu increasingly criticized the central government’s policies, accusing it of neglecting Andhra Pradesh’s legitimate demands and reneging on promises made during the bifurcation.

The situation reached a tipping point in 2018 when the TDP formally withdrew from the NDA coalition. Naidu’s decision to sever ties with the BJP was a culmination of months of frustration and failed negotiations over SCS and other issues critical to Andhra Pradesh’s development. The move was politically significant, signalling Naidu’s readiness to prioritize state interests over maintaining a national alliance.

Now he is back in the NDA fold in considerably more favourable conditions and seems to be enjoying the position to the tilt, as the Modi government goes out of its way to please him.