4 INDO-PAK FIGHTS HIT LAKH FAMILIES BSE LOSE RS 13 TN IN 3 DAYS, WAR MAY COST $ 18 BN DAILY

“I am sick & tired of old men sending young innocent boys to die in their wars.”, said George McGovern, US senator who was a voice against the Vietnam war.

That was indeed a sane voice for warring countries. It is just not young boys, and now girls as well, but it has a terrible cost on a country in terms of monetary cost and wellbeing. So far it is not a war between Indian and Pakistan. It is the warming up process. It too has a cost. Missiles, drones, aircraft, machine guns, rifles, or every bit used for the war has cost including food to the warring men. Most battle ground materials are never collected and left there. It dumps cost on the people of the country that supports a war.

Major loss since May 7 is the death of Rajouri additional deputy commissioner Raj Kumar Thapa in a Pakistan shelling. There have been at least 19 deaths of other civilians and many injured apart from the losses along the border. Pakistan specialises in low-cost manoeuvres but inflict heavy losses on India through proxy wars, air space closure, decoy unarmed or low-explosive drone attacks in swarms as near Jaisalmer. It attracts heavy responses from India as it cannot risk not to combat. The common joke is,
“Decoy Rs 10-drones face million-dollar action”.

So how much India might have spent in the first three days of assault since May 7 can have an approximation. Thirty-two airports closed and many flights cancelled. Suspension of the commercial IPL cricket is expensive. The BSE stock investors lose Rs 13 lakh crore since May 6. The BSE loses 156 points, Rs 6 lakh crore, on May 6, 106 points gain on May 7, 412 points lost on May 8-nearly Rs 5 lakh crore; lost 880 points, about Rs 2 lakh crore, on May 9 as tension mounts.

Both currencies of India and Pakistan are under pressure.

Brahmos missiles cost between $ 2.5 to 5.6 million. Smaller missiles cost less. Kamekaze Drones cost $ 500 each. The sorties are never flown alone. Deployment, manning, logistics, troop movements have separate costs. Precision bombardment with hitech drones costs Russia roughly $350,000 per target struck. The Kh-22 air-to-ground missile’s each target cost is said to be around $ 1 million.

At low-intensity Kargil conflict, India reportedly spent Rs.14.6 billion per day while Pakistan spent close to Rs.3.7 billion per day.

According to an analysis by the UAE-based Foreign Affairs Forum, even a brief conventional war could cost India between Rs1,460 crore and Rs 5,000 crore per day. A prolonged conflict could trigger massive economic disruptions, with estimated daily losses surpassing $17.8 billion (Rs1.34 lakh crore).

The cost of present conflict is so heavy that the government is mulling recovering some of it from common citizens, It is considering doubling excise duty on petrol and diesel to Rs 4 from Rs 2 levied a fortnight back. It is estimated to realise Rs 64000 crore. This is over the 2025-2026 defence allocation of Rs 6.81 trillion (USD78. 3 billion), 9.5 percent rise over 2024-25. Of this only 26.4 percent is for new acquisitions. Pakistan increases its 2025-26 military budget by 18 percent to Pakistani Rs 6.8 lakh crore ($80 billion). About 22 percent is for new weapons.

A report by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry highlights that ongoing India-Pakistan tensions have significantly limited trade between the two. making it minimal compared to India’s trade with neighbours like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Following the Pulwama attack, Pakistan’s exports to India plummeted from $550 million to just $480,000, while Indian exports, mainly pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and agricultural goods, total around $1.2 billion.

The India-Pakistan conflict squeezes out 3 percent of India’s economic potential, according to an analysis done by the Mumbai-based think-tank Strategic Foresight Group in 2004. In a report titled “Cost of Conflict”, the group analysed military expenditures of the two countries to conclude that even low-intensity warfare could have “financial costs, human lives and policy losses”. Each war, 1948, 1962, 1965, 1971, 1999 Kargil cost the nation enormously.

Since 1947, each war brought claims of victory—but both sides paid in blood, broken trust, and lost chances for peace. Kashmir remains contested and borders tense. The borders didn’t just divide land—they divided minds.

Decades later, the quest is if either side truly win, or did both lose what mattered most? Let us take the crucial Peer Panjal Pass. After tough battles and loss of soldiers’ lives, India won and returned it to Pakistan at the negotiating table. By 2003, India had raised its military budget from Rs 560 billion to Rs 653 billion, while Pakistan’s increased slightly from Rs 158 billion to Rs 160 billion.

Parliament Attack

Post-Dec 13, 2001 terrorist attack on Parliament House, India spent $600 million between from December 2001 and January 2002, and Pakistan $400 million on military preparedness. According to the Strategic
Foresight Group, an Indian think tank, the total cost of the standoff—driven by heightened tensions and the looming threat of nuclear conflict—exceeded $3 billion in just a few months.

By 2003, India had raised its military budget from Rs 560 billion to Rs 653 billion, while Pakistan’s increased slightly from Rs 158 billion to Rs 160 billion.

In the 1971 war, around 3,843 Indian soldiers and nearly 8,000 Pakistani soldiers lost their lives, with the conflict ending in India capturing over 93,000 Pakistani prisoners of war.

While exact figures on civilian casualties and disappearances are unavailable, the Strategic Foresight Group estimates that the four wars between India and Pakistan directly affected at least one lakh families through human loss.

Pakistan reneges repeatedly on commitment to peace. It foments terror proxy war imposing huge costs on India.

“Although there have been occasional moves toward confidence-building measures and, most recently, toward more open borders for trade, deep mistrust and suspicion mark this sibling rivalry,” said a paper by the US-based Atlantic Council, which analysed the opportunity cost of an India-Pakistan conflict, arguing
that a war is the last thing the subcontinent needs.

The remedy is not simple. The common forum, SAARC, is supine for a decade. Pakistan should be forced to negotiating table before yet another flare up. A low-cost war suits Pakistan but India must call the shots to save young lives, economic growth and future of the Indian subcontinent.

 

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