…End of the Abdullah Dynasty

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By: Vijay Sanghvi

Results of the Kashmir assembly polls hold a greater political significance for the political direction of India than results in any other state. The Bharatiya Janata Party has made a concerted bid for the first time for power in the state as the Abdulla dynasty that ruled the state even before merger of Kashmir with Indian Republic in 1948 seems to be moving towards its end. The National Conference that held power for major portion of 66 years failed to win even a clear majority in the last two elections and had to depend on 17 Congress legislators to get to power. Farooq Abdulla could not win the Srinagar seat in the Valley in the last Lok Sabha polls. It spelt end of the NC in the Valley. Its influence never extended to Jammu region with 37 seats in the assembly.

The assembly constituted in 1936 by Raja Hari Sinh to allow members to take out their discontent in words but without power to legislate had originally 100 members. It was expended to 111 seats in1988. However 24 seats are for representing the region under the Pak occupation. They have been allowed to remain vacant for electio9n after election as a symbol that the region belongs to India. For quorum and majority the count is always 87 seats divided in three regions, the Valley 46 seats, Jammu 37 and Ladakh 4 seats. The state is alamgam of three regions, socially, economically, culturally and religion wise totally different from each other. Even in population count they differ with the Muslims forming majority in the Valley, the Hindu in Jammu and Buddhist in Ladakh.

The BJP hopes to gain at least 34 in Jammu and 4 in Ladakh leaving it to bid for less than 10 of 46 seats of the Valley. The BJP leaders hope to gain as the NaMO government made concerted effort to provide relief on a massive scale to millions of poor trapped and stranded for days in flood waters, worst tragedy in decades. Contrary to media reports, the ground realities are different. Stranded people saw the relief workers attending to families first whose names were on lists that they had carried with them. The stranded and starving families were not given even food packets and drinking water till the listed were not evacuated to safety. The relief operation left bitter memories behind.

However blame for shoddy relief operations was put on the Omar Abdulla, chief minister for he had failed to comprehend the severity of swirling flood waters that were to cover entire Srinagar in two days. Failure to evacuate lakh in time to safety resulted in miseries for millions while the chief minister was attending inauguration of the Golf Tournament. The rising popular discontent is targeted against both the centre and the state. How they would react is difficult to assess but they have little option. The People’s Democratic Party has an opportunity to outdo the NC in the valley region though the campaign by Mehbooba Mufti did elicit some response as it did in earlier elections. The Congress does not figure in any reckoning. Thus fight in essentially between the BJP and the PDP in the Valley.

The BJP has put on hold its controversial demand for scrapping of the Article 370 of Indian constitution that provides special status to the state. The special status was granted as a concession to induce Raja Hari Sinh, with consent of his then prime minister Sheikh Abdulla, to sign the documents of accession with the Indian republic. Sheikh was dead set against merger of Kashmir with Pakistan. Yer was in dilemma over option of either merger with India or seek independent status for Kashmir? Rush of Pathan hoardes to infiltrators to the Valley as precursor to its merger with Pakistan decidedly encouraged by the Pakistan government and aided and abetted by the Pak Army left him no option but to sign the merger document. Sheikh had closer ties with Nehru even Nehru could not help but to put Sheikh under detention after he actively toyed with idea of separating Kashmir a decade after its merger. Indira Gandhi released him after an agreement that Sheikh would never question merger of Kashmir with India as it would become a part of the Indian union in every sense. The spirit of the Article 370 was thus diluted by the Indira Sheikh agreement that allowed Sheikh to return to power

After Sheikh his son Farooq became the chief minister. He ruled more as playboy than a political leader and played games of association with everyone that could help him to retain power. Erosion of his influence was written in his politics.  NC in power, direct or in coalition in five decades never opened political and economic institutions to poor to provide benefits of development. No storages were constructed for preserving fruits produce in the state. Poor farmers suffered loss of 60 per cent of their produce due to wastage and rotting. They could not limp out of their poverty. Fruit produce could have created their stake in India as India was only market with capacity to consume its produce.

NaMo would need to find an able man with vision to overcome difficulties that stood in the way for ages to win over people. He can hardly afford to play with the constitutional provisions without attracting the world attention despite pressure from the Sangh Parivar. He side tracked issue of the Article 370 while addressing election meetings in Jammu region in first phase of his campaign before the first lap of voting. Emotional demands cannot be allowed to overcrowd the state craft. Only astute handling of political affairs and opening of economic institutions can ensure proper governance without edge to separatists. The BJP raj would certainly come as advantage to separatists.

It is also apparent that the Sangh would not allow NaMo to handle the situation as international demands would expect him to. Kashmir is internal and integral part of India, but not in eyes of the rest of the world. It is a disputed issue for them. It makes Kashmir geopolitically tinderbox region. NaMo would need to handle the dynamite with extra care if it comes to his party. Even otherwise the issue would make demands on all his astute understanding and ability for depth handling of explosive issues for the next five years. Only sure outcome of the Kashmir polls is the end of the Abdulla dynasty. Rest is uncertain and unpredictable.

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